Assessment of ecosystem health and driving forces in response to landscape pattern dynamics: the Shibing Karst world natural heritage site case study

Abstract The Shibing Karst constitutes a pivotal component of the "South China Karst," and its ecosystem health integrity crucially influences the Outstanding Universal Value (OUV) of the corresponding Natural World Heritage (NWH). Consequently, robust ecosystem health assessment (EHA) is imperative for the judicious conservation and management of this heritage, as well as for the sustainable progression of the region. This research assessed the health of the Shibing Karst ecosystem from 2004 to 2020 by employing changes in landscape patterns through the Vigor-Organization-Resilience-Ecosystem Services (VORS) model. Spatial autocorrelation was employed to discern the spatial coherence and evolutionary patterns of ecosystem health, whereas a geo-detector ascertained the pivotal determinants impacting regional ecosystem vitality. The findings revealed that: (1) The landscape patterns distribution in the study area exhibited considerable constancy, primarily comprising forest land, with a rising trajectory in construction land and water, juxtaposed with a recession in shrubland, grassland, paddy land, and dryland expanses. (2) From 2004 to 2020, the ecosystem of the study area maintained its health and remained stable, with mean values of 0.8303, 0.7689, 0.6976, and 0.7824, respectively, showing an evolutionary trend of an initial downtrend trend followed by an upswing, with 2016 marking a pivotal juncture. (3) Spatial clustering analysis highlighted significant clustering characteristics of ecosystem health, with a nominal decrease in the Global Moran's I index from 0.666 to 0.665, which is indicative of a subtle decrease in clustering over time. High-high clustering areas were predominantly located within the World Heritage Site (WHS), while low-low clustering areas were mainly distributed in the southeastern part of buffer zone. (4) Land use and cover change (LUCC) and Ecosystem Services (ESs) were identified as the primary indexes of EHA, with Ecosystem Resilience (ER), Ecosystem Vigor (EV), and Ecosystem Organization (EO) exerting relatively mild influences. This study provides a scientific framework for policymakers in local governance to devise strategies for ecosystem conservation and management, enhances the analytical perspective on the integrity and conservation of Karst Natural World Heritage (KNWH).