Climate Change-Induced Emergence of Novel Biogeochemical Provinces

The global ocean is commonly partitioned into 4 biomes subdivided into 56 biogeochemical provinces (BGCPs) following the accepted division proposed by Longhurst in 1998. Each province corresponds to a unique regional environment that shapes biodiversity and constrains ecosystem structure and functions. Biogeochemical provinces are dynamic entities that change their spatial extent and position with climate and are expected to be perturbated in the near future by global climate change. Here, we characterize the changes in spatial distribution of BGCPs from 1950 to 2100 using three earth system models under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and 8.5). We project a reorganization of the current distribution of BGCPs driven mostly by a poleward shift in their distribution (18.4 km in average per decade). Projection of the future distribution of BGCPs also revealed the emergence of new climate that has no analog with past and current environmental conditions. These novel environmental conditions, here named No-Analog BGCPs State (NABS), will expand from 2040 to 2100 at a rate of 4.3 Mkm2 per decade (1.2% of the global ocean). We subsequently quantified the potential number of marine species and annual volume of fisheries catches that would experience such novel environmental conditions to roughly evaluate the impact of NABS on ecosystem services.