Development and validation of a prediction model of perioperative hypoglycemia risk in patients with type 2 diabetes undergoing elective surgery

Abstract Aim To develop and validate a prediction model to evaluate the perioperative hypoglycemia risk in hospitalized type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients undergoing elective surgery. Methods We retrospectively analyzed the electronic medical records of 1410 T2DM patients who had been hospitalized and undergone elective surgery. Regression analysis was used to develop a predictive model for perioperative hypoglycemia risk. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the Hosmer–Lemeshow test were used to verify the model. Results Our study showed an incidence of 10.7% for level 1 hypoglycemia and 1.8% for level 2 severe hypoglycemia during the perioperative period. A perioperative hypoglycemic risk prediction model was developed that was mainly composed of four predictors: duration of diabetes ≥ 10 year, body mass index (BMI)