Agricultural carbon emission efficiency evaluation and influencing factors in Zhejiang province, China

Based on the classic IPCC carbon emission calculation theory, this paper calculates the agricultural carbon emissions intensity and efficiency in Zhejiang Province from 2011 to 2020. The LMDI model is further adapted to carry out the influence factors of agricultural carbon emissions. In addition, the grey prediction model GM (1, 1) is used to predict the carbon emissions of Zhejiang Province from 2022 to 2025. The results show that the agricultural carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity in Zhejiang Province have a downward trend. Further, it is concluded that Shaoxing, Hangzhou, Jiaxing, and Huzhou are the cities with low emission and high efficiency, and Wenzhou is the city with high emission and low efficiency. Meanwhile, the improvement of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) results from the joint action of Technical Progress Efficiency (TECH) and Technical Efficiency (EFF). TECH is greater than EFF, and Scale Efficiency (SE) and Pure Technical Efficiency (PTE) contributions change with the years. In general, the contribution of PTE is more significant than that of SE, and its improvement mainly rests on technical progress. Among the factors influencing agricultural carbon emission efficiency, agricultural carbon emission intensity and labor force size have inhibiting effects on agricultural carbon emission efficiency growth. In contrast, agricultural industrial structure, economic development, and urbanization positively affect agricultural carbon emission efficiency. The prediction results show that the overall carbon emissions of Zhejiang Province will get a downward trend. Finally, based on these findings, we offer policy implications.