Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting critical respiratory events during early anesthesia recovery in elderly patients

Abstract Background Elderly patients undergoing recovery from general anesthesia face a heightened risk of critical respiratory events (CREs). Despite this, there is a notable absence of effective predictive tools tailored to this specific demographic. This study aims to develop and validate a predictive model (nomogram) to address this gap. CREs pose significant risks to elderly patients during the recovery phase from general anesthesia, making it an important issue in perioperative care. With the increasing aging population and the complexity of surgical procedures, it is crucial to develop effective predictive tools to improve patient outcomes and ensure patient safety during post-anesthesia care unit (PACU) recovery. Methods A total of 324 elderly patients who underwent elective general anesthesia in a grade A tertiary hospital from January 2023 to June 2023 were enrolled. Risk factors were identified using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. A multivariate logistic regression model was constructed and represented as a nomogram. Internal validation of the model was performed using Bootstrapping. This study followed the TRIPOD checklist for reporting. Results The indicators included in the nomogram were frailty, snoring, patient-controlled intravenous analgesia (PCIA), emergency delirium and cough intensity at extubation. The diagnostic performance of the nomogram model was satisfactory, with AUC values of 0.990 and 0.981 for the training set and internal validation set, respectively. The optimal cutoff value was determined to be 0.22, based on a Youden index of 0.911. The F1-score was 0.927, and the MCC was 0.896. The calibration curve, Brier score (0.046), and HL test demonstrated acceptable consistency between the predicted and actual results. DCA revealed high net benefits of the nomogram prediction across all threshold probabilities. Conclusions This study developed and validated a nomogram to identify elderly patients in the PACU who are at higher risk of CREs. The identified predictive factors included frailty condition, snoring syndrome, PCIA, emergency delirium, and cough intensity at extubation. By identifying patients at higher risk of CREs early on, medical professionals can implement targeted strategies to mitigate the occurrence of complications and provide better postoperative care for elderly patients recovering from general anesthesia.