Impacts of Climate Variation on Rural Populations: Evidence from Vietnam

ABSTRACTClimate change and increasing climatic variability have exacerbated the climate-related effects on various aspects of human socioeconomic activity. The effects of droughts on crop production, household expenditure, rural poverty and internal migration in Vietnam were investigated using a unique panel dataset while controlling for potential issues that could lead to biased estimations. We find comprehensive evidence that droughts not only caused a significant decline in rice productivity and rural household consumption, but also pushed them into poverty. Furthermore, droughts are strongly linked to rural people's decisions to migrate to other areas, pushing migration decisions through the productivity, consumption and poverty channels. Understanding the complex relationship between climate change, particularly drought, and its consequences is critical for developing policy interventions to help rural populations cope with climate change risks and uncertainties. These findings emphasize the importance of increasing rural populations’ resilience to climate-related extreme events to mitigate their interconnected effects.