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Identification of the Mathematical Model of Tuberculosis and HIV Co-Infection Dynamics

Identification of the Mathematical Model of Tuberculosis and HIV Co-Infection Dynamics

Authors :
Sergey Kabanikhin
Olga Krivorotko
Andrei Neverov
Grigoriy Kaminskiy
Olga Semenova
Source :
Mathematics, Vol 12, Iss 23, p 3636 (2024)
Publication Year :
2024
Publisher :
MDPI AG, 2024.

Abstract

This paper proposes and analyzes a mathematical model of tuberculosis and HIV co-infection that specifies for Russian Federation regions, based on mass balance law and described by eight ordinary differential equations. A sensitivity-based identifiability analysis of this mathematical model was performed, which revealed the sensitivity of the averaged parameters of the models to statistical real data of infectious individuals based on the Sobol method. The problem of identifying the sensitive epidemiological parameters (contagiousness, the rate of tuberculosis activation, additional mortality rate, etc.) for the model was reduced to the problem of minimization of the quadratic misfit function. The numerical results of the modeling of the number of people expected to be infected with tuberculosis and HIV were shown and discussed for the Sverdlovsk and Moscow regions of the Russian Federation. It has been shown that increasing the capacity of the medical system by 10% will make it possible to reduce the number of diagnosed cases of active tuberculosis by 2 times over the next 3 years in some regions of Russian Federation.

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
22277390
Volume :
12
Issue :
23
Database :
Directory of Open Access Journals
Journal :
Mathematics
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
edsdoj.573123c9ca481e90c179d8efed860a
Document Type :
article
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.3390/math12233636