Machine learning-assisted system using digital facial images to predict the clinical activity score in thyroid-associated orbitopathy

Abstract Although the clinical activity score (CAS) is a validated scoring system for identifying disease activity of thyroid-associated orbitopathy (TAO), it may produce differing results depending on the evaluator, and an experienced ophthalmologist is required for accurate evaluation. In this study, we developed a machine learning (ML)-assisted system to mimic an expert’s CAS assessment using digital facial images and evaluated its accuracy for predicting the CAS and diagnosing active TAO (CAS ≥ 3). An ML-assisted system was designed to assess five CAS components related to inflammatory signs (redness of the eyelids, redness of the conjunctiva, swelling of the eyelids, inflammation of the caruncle and/or plica, and conjunctival edema) in patients’ facial images and to predict the CAS by considering two components of subjective symptoms (spontaneous retrobulbar pain and pain on gaze). To train and test the system, 3,060 cropped images from 1020 digital facial images of TAO patients were used. The reference CAS for each image was scored by three ophthalmologists, each with > 15 years of clinical experience. We repeated the experiments for 30 randomly split training and test sets at a ratio of 8:2. The sensitivity and specificity of the ML-assisted system for diagnosing active TAO were 72.7% and 83.2% in the test set constructed from the entire dataset. For the test set constructed from the dataset with consistent results for the three ophthalmologists, the sensitivity and specificity for diagnosing active TAO were 88.1% and 86.9%. In the test sets from the entire dataset and from the dataset with consistent results, 40.0% and 49.9% of the predicted CAS values were the same as the reference CAS, respectively. The system predicted the CAS within 1 point of the reference CAS in 84.6% and 89.0% of cases when tested using the entire dataset and in the dataset with consistent results, respectively. An ML-assisted system estimated the clinical activity of TAO and detect inflammatory active TAO with reasonable accuracy. The accuracy could be improved further by obtaining more data. This ML-assisted system can help evaluate the disease activity consistently as well as accurately and enable the early diagnosis and timely treatment of active TAO.