Impact of Heading Shift of Barley Cultivars on the Weather Patterns around Heading and Yield in Alaska

Barley heading date has advanced in Fairbanks (64.83° N, 147.77° W), Alaska, USA. However, it is unclear if this advance coincidently causes weather pattern changes around heading and leads to yield loss. Using the Variety Trial and weather data in Fairbanks and Delta Junction (64.05° N, 145.60° W) from 1991 to 2018, two barley cultivars were selected to analyze the yield and weather trends, the yield variation explained by weather, and the effect of extreme weather on yield. The results showed that the heading date of ‘Otal’ significantly advanced and yield significantly declined in Fairbanks while there were no heading and yield changes of ‘Otal’ in Delta Junction and of ‘Thual’ in both Fairbanks and Delta Junction. The weather pattern changed around heading due to advanced heading of ‘Otal’ in Fairbanks. The climate factors at 7–10 days around heading explained over 50% of ‘Otal’ yield variation in Fairbanks. The results suggest that ‘Otal’ can still be good to plant in Delta Junction but not in Fairbanks. To cope with the climate change in Alaska, the farmers should increase the diversity of barley cultivars, select non-photoperiod sensitive cultivars and cultivars with longer duration from planting to heading, and sow late to avoid the impact on heading and yield.