Potential of Kazakhstan’s grain export trade

ABSTRACT: Kazakhstan is located in the hinterland of Central Asia. Its virtuous geographical advantages and huge grain production potential make it one of the most important grain exporters in the world. The research on the problem of the grain trade in Kazakhstan is of great significance for food security. This study measured its international competitiveness using the International Market Share Index, the Revealed Comparative Advantage Index, Trade competitiveness index and calculated the international competitiveness and analyzed the influencing factors of grain export by constructing an extended gravity model and measured its export potential. Results showed that Kazakhstan has a low share of the international grain market; however, wheat, barley, and buckwheat have strong export advantages; the level of economic development and economic distance has significantly promoted the scale of grain exports. While geographical distance, the difference in GDP per capita, and the fact whether trading partner countries have joined the Eurasian Economic Union have caused obstacles to grain exports. Kazakhstan’s export potential to 6 countries including Russia, Kyrgyzstan and China shows an upward” trend, its export potential to 6 countries including Tajikistan and Ukraine showing a “stable” trend, and its export to 9 countries included Poland and Germany. The potential showed a “declining” trend.