Simulation and estimation of future ecological risk on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Abstract Over the past 50 years, temperatures on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) have risen roughly twice as fast as the global average, making it the most unpredictable region of environmental change due to global warming. In this paper, an Environmental Area Index model was developed using data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to assess the ecological risk faced by QTP ecosystems under the influence of climate factors. The results show that ecological risk gradually decreases from northwest to the southeast, and there are different trends in ecological risk for each class in areas with different elevation gradients. As elevation increased, the proportion of potential risk areas gradually decreased, and the proportion of high- and higher-risk areas gradually increased. We predict that in the period 2021–2100, the overall ecological risk change trend on the QTP will not be obvious, but there will be a more obvious change on the vertical gradient. In general, under the existing global climate change scenario, the ecological risk faced by the QTP show a decreasing trend under the influence of climate factors, and the decrease in ecological risks is much higher at higher elevations than at lower elevations.