Evaluation of irrigation requirement for the design of an irrigation system using a probabilistic approach for the estimation of evapotranspiration and rainfall

ABSTRACT Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) and rainfall are basic variables for estimating the net irrigation depth (NID). The objective of this study was to estimate the NID for designing irrigation systems in Piracicaba, SP, Brazil, using ET0 and rainfall probability distributions. A 30-year ET0 and rainfall dataset (1990-2019) was obtained from the ESALQ/USP weather station. The water balance between ET0 and rainfall indicated July, August, and September as months of higher water deficit. Based on the first-order Markov chain, August presented the highest water deficit. Rainfall and ET0 were estimated on 19 probability levels, and four probability distributions such as normal, log-normal, beta, and mixed gamma were evaluated. The analysis of historical August series using accumulated values in periods of five, ten, or 15 days is recommended for sizing irrigation designs in Piracicaba, SP, Brazil. The log-normal and mixed gamma probability distributions presented the best fit for ET0 and rainfall data, respectively. To reach a crop coefficient Kc = 1 in Piracicaba, SP, Brazil in August, the irrigation system should be designed for an NID of 4.1 mm day-1. The use of mean monthly rainfall and ET0 values for designing irrigation systems underestimates the NID by a mean of 26.6% compared to estimates made at a probability of 75% at five-, ten-, and 15-day intervals because the mean rainfall values occurred with exceedance probabilities of < 36%, and mean ET0 values occurred with non-exceedance probabilities of < 56%.