The carrying capacity for vegetation of forest land across China: Near real-time monitoring and short-term forecasting based on satellite observation

Ecological restoration projects implemented over the past 20 years have substantially increased forest coverage in China, but the high tree mortality of new afforestation forest remains a challenging but unsolved problem. It is still not clear how much vegetation can be sustained by the forest lands with given water, energy and soil conditions, i.e., the carrying capacity for vegetation (CCV) of forest lands, which is the prerequisite for planning and implementing forest restoration projects. Here, we used a simplified method to evaluate the CCV across forest lands nationwide. Specifically, based on leaf area index (LAI) dataset, we use boosted regression tree and multiple linear regression model to analyze the CCV during 2001–2020 and 2021–2030 and explore the contribution of environmental factors. We find that there are three typical regions with lower CCV located in the Loess Plateau and the southern region of the Inner Mongolia Plateau, the Hengduan Mountain region, and the Tianshan Mountains. More importantly, the vegetation in the regions near the dry-wet climate transition zone show excess local carrying capacity for vegetation over the past two decades and they are more susceptible to potential climatic stress. In comparison, in the Greater Khingan Mountains and Hengduan Mountains, there is high potential to improve the forest growth. Temperature, precipitation and soil affects the CCV by shaping the vegetation in the optimal range. This indicates that more consideration should be given to restrictions of regional environmental constraints when planning afforestation and forest management. This study has important implications for guiding future forest scheme in China.