Micro-spatial distribution of malaria cases and control strategies at ward level in Gwanda district, Matabeleland South, Zimbabwe

Abstract Background Although there has been a decline in the number of malaria cases in Zimbabwe since 2010, the disease remains the biggest public health threat in the country. Gwanda district, located in Matabeleland South Province of Zimbabwe has progressed to the malaria pre-elimination phase. The aim of this study was to determine the spatial distribution of malaria incidence at ward level for improving the planning and implementation of malaria elimination in the district. Methods The Poisson purely spatial model was used to detect malaria clusters and their properties, including relative risk and significance levels at ward level. The geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) model was used to explore the potential role and significance of environmental variables [rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature, altitude, Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), rural/urban] and malaria control strategies [indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs)] on the spatial patterns of malaria incidence at ward level. Results Two significant clusters (p