Impacts of the COVID-19 economic slowdown on soybean crop yields in the United States

Abstract It is without question that the COVID-19 pandemic has taken its toll on the U.S. economy. Stay-at-home orders led to reduced vehicular traffic and widespread declines in anthropogenic emissions (e.g., nitrogen oxides (NOx)). This study is the first to explore the potential consequences of O3 changes resulting from the economic shutdown in the United States on soybean crop yields for 2020. The pandemic’s impact on surface O3 is quantified using the NOAA’s National Air Quality Forecasting Capability (NAQFC), which is based on the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for May–July 2020. The “would-be”, 2020 level business-as-usual (BAU) emissions are compared to a simulation that uses representative COVID-19 (C19) emissions. For each emissions scenario, crop exposures are calculated using the AOT40 cumulative exposure index and then combined with county-level soybean production totals to determine regional yield losses. Exposure changes ranged between – 2 and 2 ppmVhr−1. It was further shown that increased exposures (0.5 to 1.10 ppmVhr−1) in the Southeast U.S. counteracted decreased exposures (0.8 to 0.5 ppmVhr−1) in the other soybean-producing regions. As a result, corresponding yield improvements counteracted yield losses around the Mississippi River Valley and allowed for minimal improvements in soybean production loss totaling $6.5 million over CONUS.