Contemporary update of overall prognosis and nomogram to predict individualized survival for Chinese patients with eyelid sebaceous carcinomaResearch in context

Background: The prognosis of Chinese patients with eyelid sebaceous carcinoma (SC) has not been updated for >3 decades. The prognostic predictors are multifactorial, and there is no validated prognostic model for eyelid SC. Methods: This study included 238 consecutive patients with eyelid SC. All eligible patients were followed up for metastasis and mortality. The predictors of tumor-related survival were explored by Cox analyses. A prognostic nomogram was developed and validated using bootstrap resampling. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability were compared between the nomogram and the Tumor, Node, Metastasis (TNM) staging system. Findings: After a median follow-up period of 55.5 months, 27 (11.3%) patients died of metastatic SC, with a median survival time of 48.0 months. The 5-year and 10-year tumor-related survival rates were 88.1% and 77.9%, respectively. Orbital involvement (HR: 3.11, p = .022), the greatest tumor basal diameter (HR: 1.06, p = .003), the presence of pagetoid spread (HR: 2.90, p = .017), and having lymph node metastasis at initial diagnosis (HR: 13.66, p