Digital Economy and Industrial Structure Transformation: Mechanisms for High-Quality Development in China’s Agriculture and Rural Areas

The digital economy’s transformative impact on agriculture presents both opportunities and challenges for China’s pursuit of high-quality agricultural and rural development. This study investigates the complex interplay between digital economy, industrial structure transformation, and agricultural advancement using panel data from 31 Chinese provinces spanning 2012–2021. We employed mediation analysis and threshold effect models to uncover several key findings: (1) The digital economy influences high-quality agricultural and rural development through the dual-mediating mechanisms of industrial structure intensification and upgrading in China. (2) These mediating effects exhibit heterogeneous patterns: while industrial intensification positively channels the digital economy’s impact, industrial upgrading shows an initial negative indirect effect, suggesting potential short-term disruptions. (3) The relationship between digital economy and agricultural development is nonlinear, characterized by significant threshold effects. The digital economy’s positive impact becomes more pronounced as industrial structure surpasses certain sophistication and advancement thresholds. Our findings reveal the nuanced dynamics of digital-driven agricultural transformation, highlighting the need for targeted policies that leverage industrial-structure changes while mitigating potential adverse effects. This research contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of how digitalization can be harnessed to promote sustainable and high-quality agricultural and rural development in China, with implications for other developing economies navigating similar transitions.