Estimating Emissions from Crop Residue Open Burning in Central China from 2012 to 2020 Using Statistical Models Combined with Satellite Observations

Crop residue open burning has significant adverse effects on regional air quality, climate change, and human health. Emissions from crop residue open burning estimated by satellites are underestimated in central China due to long-term cloud cover and the limitation of spatial-temporal resolution of satellites. In this study, we used a statistical-based method to investigate the crop residue open burning emissions in central China from 2012 to 2020. The open burning proportion (OBP) of residue, updated annually by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) 375 m active fire product (VNP14IMG), and the latest observed emission factors (EFS) were used to improve the accuracy of the estimated emissions. Annual emissions of pollutants were allocated into 0.1° × 0.1° spatial grid cells using fire counts and land cover data. The results showed that the total emissions of black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitric oxide (NOX), carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), fine particles (PM2.5), coarse particles (PM10), ammonia (NH3), methane (CH4) and non-methane volatile organic compound (NMVOC) were 34.84, 149.72, 41.06, 90.11, 2640.97, 78,094.91, 485.17, 481.05, 35.21, 246.38 and 499.59 Gg, respectively. The largest contributor of crop residue open burning was rice, followed by wheat, rapeseed and corn, with the contribution rates of 35.34–64.07%, 15.78–34.71%, 9.12–25.56%, and 5.69–14.06%, respectively. The pollutants emissions exhibit large annual variation, with the highest emissions in 2013 and a remarkable decrease from 2013 to 2015 under strict control measures. Since 2015, the emissions remained at a low level, which shows that air quality control policies play a role in recent years. The result indicates that using OBP updated by satellite active fire product in a statistical-based method can help to get more accurate and reliable multi-year emissions.