Developing a risk stratification tool for predicting opioid-related respiratory depression after non-cardiac surgery: a retrospective study

Objectives Accurately assessing the probability of significant respiratory depression following opioid administration can potentially enhance perioperative risk assessment and pain management. We developed and validated a risk prediction tool to estimate the probability of significant respiratory depression (indexed by naloxone administration) in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery.Design Retrospective cohort study.Setting Single academic centre.Participants We studied n=63 084 patients (mean age 47.1±18.2 years; 50% men) who underwent emergency or elective non-cardiac surgery between 1 January 2007 and 30 October 2017.Interventions A derivation subsample reflecting two-thirds of available patients (n=42 082) was randomly selected for model development, and associations were identified between predictor variables and naloxone administration occurring within 5 days following surgery. The resulting probability model for predicting naloxone administration was then cross-validated in a separate validation cohort reflecting the remaining one-third of patients (n=21 002).Results The rate of naloxone administration was identical in the derivation (n=2720 (6.5%)) and validation (n=1360 (6.5%)) cohorts. The risk prediction model identified female sex (OR: 3.01; 95% CI: 2.73 to 3.32), high-risk surgical procedures (OR: 4.16; 95% CI: 3.78 to 4.58), history of drug abuse (OR: 1.81; 95% CI: 1.52 to 2.16) and any opioids being administered on a scheduled rather than as-needed basis (OR: 8.31; 95% CI: 7.26 to 9.51) as risk factors for naloxone administration. Advanced age (OR: 0.971; 95% CI: 0.968 to 0.973), opioids administered via patient-controlled analgesia pump (OR: 0.55; 95% CI: 0.49 to 0.62) and any scheduled non-opioids (OR: 0.63; 95% CI: 0.58 to 0.69) were associated with decreased risk of naloxone administration. An overall risk prediction model incorporating the common clinically available variables above displayed excellent discriminative ability in both the derivation and validation cohorts (c-index=0.820 and 0.814, respectively).Conclusion Our cross-validated clinical predictive model accurately estimates the risk of serious opioid-related respiratory depression requiring naloxone administration in postoperative patients.