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Epidemic monitoring in real-time based on dynamic grid search and Monte Carlo numerical simulation algorithm

Authors :
Xin Chen
Huijun Ning
Liuwang Guo
Dongming Diao
Xinru Zhou
Xiaoliang Zhang
Source :
PeerJ Computer Science, Vol 9, p e1479 (2023)
Publication Year :
2023
Publisher :
PeerJ Inc., 2023.

Abstract

Building upon the foundational principles of the grid search algorithm and Monte Carlo numerical simulation, this article introduces an innovative epidemic monitoring and prevention plan. The plan offers the capability to accurately identify the sources of infectious diseases and predict the final scale and duration of the epidemic. The proposed plan is implemented in schools and society, utilizing computer simulation analysis. Through this analysis, the plan enables precise localization of infection sources for various demographic groups, with an error rate of less than 3%. Additionally, the plan allows for the estimation of the epidemic cycle duration, which typically spans around 14 days. Notably, higher population density enhances fault tolerance and prediction accuracy, resulting in smaller errors and more reliable simulation outcomes. Overall, this study provides highly valuable theoretical guidance for effective epidemic prevention and control efforts.

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
23765992
Volume :
9
Database :
Directory of Open Access Journals
Journal :
PeerJ Computer Science
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
edsdoj.510588d28a604f33ad6e8047e511d3ed
Document Type :
article
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj-cs.1479