Comparative evaluation of non-invasive tests for risk stratification for cause specific mortality in at-risk population of hepatic fibrosis

Abstract Our study aimed to conduct a comparative evaluation of various noninvasive tests (NITs) for risk stratification in at-risk population for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), focusing on cardiovascular and liver-related mortality. A total of 21,715 adults aged 40 years and older were enrolled at baseline. The mean follow-up period was 12.39 years. Three types of NITs (fibrosis-4 index [FIB-4], NAFLD fibrosis score [NFS], and steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator [SAFE] score) were used. When using the low cut-off as a 'rule-out' strategy, there were no significant differences in cardiovascular mortality between the 'rule-out' (low-risk) group and the 'rule-in' (intermediate- or high-risk) group based on FIB-4 (aHR = 1.029, P = 0.845) or NFS (aHR = 0.839, P = 0.271) classification. However, the SAFE score exhibited higher sensitivity in predicting cardiovascular mortality compared to FIB-4 or NFS (73.3% in SAFE score vs. 29.6% in FIB-4 or 21.3% in NFS). Only the SAFE score could effectively differentiate the risk between low- and intermediate- or high-risk groups for all types of mortality (all P values for aHR