Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment and Driving Force Analysis of the Heihe River Basin in the Zhangye Area of China

Watershed ecosystems are crucial to the overall sustainable development of a region, and a scientific and effective grasp of the characteristics of land-use change in a watershed, and the factors affecting land change, is an important prerequisite for the high-quality construction of watershed ecology, which needs to be emphasized. As the second largest inland river in the arid zone of Western China, the Heihe River Basin (HRB) has been affected by human and natural factors in recent years, and the ecological environment is relatively fragile, and there is an urgent need to analyze the ecological characteristics of the basin and to explore the relevant influencing factors in order to provide a basis for subsequent ecological management. Therefore, this article applies the landscape index, the landscape ecological risk index (ERI) model and the geodetector tools to analyze the land-use data from 2000 to 2020 in the Zhangye area of the HRB to study the characteristics of the ecological risk evolution and the driving forces affecting the ecological risk differentiation. The results show the following: (1) the area of the regional land-use change accounts for 4.99% of the total area, and the landscape pattern as a whole shows an increasing degree of fragmentation and a decreasing trend of aggregation; (2) the distribution of the ERI in the region shows a trend of being low in the center and high in the periphery, with an increase of 2.11% in the area of the lowest and lower risk and a decrease of 1.77% in the highest and higher, and the temporal change shows an increase followed by a significant decrease; (3) the human interference degree is the dominant factor influencing the spatial differentiation of the ERI in the basin area. There are significant differences between social factors, climate factors and land factors.