Exploring the driving factors and their mitigation potential in global energy-related CO2 emission

In order to quantify the contribution of the mitigation strategies, an extended Kaya identity has been proposed in this paper for decomposing the various factors that influence the CO2 emission. To this end, we provided a detailed decomposition of the carbon intensity and energy intensity, which enables the quantification of clean energy development and electrification. The logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) has been applied to the historical data to quantify the contributions of the various factors affecting the CO2 emissions. Further, the global energy interconnection (GEI) scenario has been introduced for providing a systematic solution to meet the 2°C goal of the Paris Agreement. By combining LMDI with the scenario analysis, the mitigation potential of the various factors for CO2 emission has been analyzed. Results from the historical data indicate that economic development and population growth contribute the most to the increase in CO2 emissions, whereas improvement in the power generation efficiency predominantly helps in emission reduction. A numerical analysis, performed for obtaining the projected future carbon emissions, suggests that clean energy development and electrification are the top two factors that can decrease CO2 emissions, thus showing their great potential for mitigation in the future. Moreover, the carbon capture and storage technology serves as an important supplementary mitigation method.