Targetable ERBB2 mutation status is an independent marker of adverse prognosis in estrogen receptor positive, ERBB2 non-amplified primary lobular breast carcinoma: a retrospective in silico analysis of public datasets

Abstract Background Invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC) accounts for 10–15% of primary breast cancers and is typically estrogen receptor alpha positive (ER+) and ERBB2 non-amplified. Somatic mutations in ERBB2/3 are emerging as a tractable mechanism underlying enhanced human epidermal growth factor 2 (HER2) activity. We tested the hypothesis that therapeutically targetable ERBB2/3 mutations in primary ILC of the breast associate with poor survival outcome in large public datasets. Methods We performed in silico comparison of ERBB2 non-amplified cases of ER+ stage I–III primary ILC (N = 279) and invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC, N = 1301) using METABRIC, TCGA, and MSK-IMPACT information. Activating mutations amenable to HER2-directed therapy with neratinib were identified using existing functional data from in vitro cell line and xenograft experiments. Multivariate analysis of 10-year overall survival (OS) with tumor size, grade, and lymph node status was performed using a Cox regression model. Differential gene expression analyses by ERBB2 mutation and amplification status was performed using weighted average differences and an in silico model of response to neratinib derived from breast cancer cell lines. Results ILC tumors comprised 17.7% of all cases in the dataset but accounted for 47.1% of ERBB2-mutated cases. Mutations in ERBB2 were enriched in ILC vs. IDC cases (5.7%, N = 16 vs. 1.4%, N = 18, p