Hydrologic response of arid and semi-arid river basins in Iraq under a changing climate

An assessment of the total hydrologic response of arid and semi-arid river basins to various scenarios of climate change by considering evapotranspiration, streamflow, and snowmelt is essential for sustainable management of water resources. The Diyala River Basin in Iraq has been chosen as a typical case study of dozens of river basins in arid and semi-arid regions. Here, the Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG), the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and the SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Program (CUP) were used to evaluate the total response by considering three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs); RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 over three periods, 2021–2040, 2041–2061, and 2061–2080. The results indicate that by the year 2080, the basin will experience a temperature increase by 6.6, 10.1, and 16.6% for RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, respectively. The corresponding reduction in precipitation will be 3.2, 6.4, and 8.7%, resulting in 38.8, 47.9, and 52.8% fall in streamflow for RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively. Due to the increase in temperature, an earlier and less contribution of snowmelt is expected in the projected streamflow. Our findings provide a useful reference and a guide to decision makers for developing adaption plans to sustainably manage water resources in the Diyala River Basin and other similar basins in arid and semi-arid regions. HIGHLIGHTS The study provides valuable information on possible future changes in streamflow under a changing climate.; LARS-WG, SWAT, SWAT-CUP, and three RCP scenarios to predict the hydrologic response of a river basin are used.; Precipitation is predicted to decrease, resulting in a reduction in streamflow.; This study supports the sustainable use of water resources in a changing climate.; This study serves the development of adaptation plans to climate change and its effects.;