Polygenic risk scores enhance prediction of body mass index increase in individuals with a first episode of psychosis

Abstract Background Individuals with a first episode of psychosis (FEP) show rapid weight gain during the first months of treatment, which is associated with a reduction in general physical health. Although genetics is assumed to be a significant contributor to weight gain, its exact role is unknown. Methods We assembled a population-based FEP cohort of 381 individuals that was split into a Training (n = 224) set and a Validation (n = 157) set to calculate the polygenic risk score (PRS) in a two-step process. In parallel, we obtained reference genome-wide association studies for body mass index (BMI) and schizophrenia (SCZ) to examine the pleiotropic landscape between the two traits. BMI PRSs were added to linear models that included sociodemographic and clinical variables to predict BMI increase (∆BMI) in the Validation set. Results The results confirmed considerable shared genetic susceptibility for the two traits involving 449 near-independent genomic loci. The inclusion of BMI PRSs significantly improved the prediction of ∆BMI at 12 months after the onset of antipsychotic treatment by 49.4% compared to a clinical model. In addition, we demonstrated that the PRS containing pleiotropic information between BMI and SCZ predicted ∆BMI better at 3 (12.2%) and 12 months (53.2%). Conclusions We prove for the first time that genetic factors play a key role in determining ∆BMI during the FEP. This finding has important clinical implications for the early identification of individuals most vulnerable to weight gain and highlights the importance of examining genetic pleiotropy in the context of medically important comorbidities for predicting future outcomes.