Lipids as the link between central obesity and diabetes: perspectives from mediation analysis

Abstract Background Central obesity is a well-recognized risk factor for diabetes, yet the potential role of lipids in the diabetes risk associated with central obesity remains unclear. This study aimed to explore the possible mediating role of 11 lipid parameters [high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), total cholesterol (TC), non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (Non-HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), triglycerides (TG), remnant cholesterol (RC), and ratios of Non-HDL-C/HDL-C, RC/HDL-C, LDL/HDL-C, TG/HDL-C, TC/HDL-C] in the association of central obesity with diabetes risk. Methods We utilized data from 15,453 participants in the NAGALA longitudinal cohort to assess the association of baseline central obesity indicators [waist-height ratio (WHtR), waist circumference (WC)] and the 11 lipid parameters with diabetes risk. Mediation analysis models were constructed to explore the mediating role of lipid parameters in the association of WC/WHtR with diabetes. Results Confirmatory associative analysis using multivariable Cox regression showed that, except for Non-HDL-C, TC and LD-C, the remaining eight lipid parameters were significantly associated with WC/WHtR and diabetes risk. Mediation analysis indicated that TG, RC, HDL-C, and lipid ratios such as Non-HDL-C/HDL-C ratio, RC/HDL-C ratio, TG/HDL-C ratio, TC/HDL-C ratio and LDL/HDL-C ratio are potential lipids affecting the diabetes risk related to central obesity. Among these, the RC/HDL-C ratio seemed to contribute the most in the WC/WHtR-related diabetes risk association, with a mediation percentage of about 37%. Additionally, lipid ratio parameters appeared to play a more mediating role in the association of central obesity-related diabetes risk than individual lipids. Conclusions In central obesity-related diabetes risk, most lipids, especially lipid ratio parameters, play a significant mediating role. Given these findings, we advocate for increased efforts in multifactorial risk monitoring and joint management of diabetes. The evaluation of lipids, particularly lipid ratio parameters, may be holds substantial value in the prevention and management of diabetes risk under close monitoring of central obesity.