Risk perception as a motivational resource during the COVID-19 pandemic: the role of vaccination status and emerging variants

Abstract Background People’s perceived risk of being infected and having severe illness was conceived as a motivational source of adherence to behavioral measures during the COVID-19 crisis. Methods We used online self-reported data, spanning 20 months of the COVID-19 crisis in Belgium (n = 221,791; 34.4% vaccinated; July 2020 - March 2022) to study the association between risk perception and motivation. Results Both perceived infection probability and severity fluctuated across time as a function of the characteristics of emerging variants, with unvaccinated persons perceiving decreasingly less risk compared to vaccinated ones. Perceived severity (and not perceived probability) was the most critical predictor of autonomous motivation for adherence to health-protective measures, a pattern observed at both the between-day and between-person level among both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. An integrated process model further indicated that on days with higher hospitalization load, participants reported being more adherent because risk severity and autonomous motivation for adherence were more elevated on these days. Conclusions These findings suggest that risk severity served as a critical and dynamic resource for adherence to behavioral measures because it fostered greater autonomous regulation.