Performance of a cardiac lipid panel compared to four prognostic scores in chronic heart failure

Abstract The cardiac lipid panel (CLP) is a novel panel of metabolomic biomarkers that has previously shown to improve the diagnostic and prognostic value for CHF patients. Several prognostic scores have been developed for cardiovascular disease risk, but their use is limited to specific populations and precision is still inadequate. We compared a risk score using the CLP plus NT-proBNP to four commonly used risk scores: The Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM), Framingham risk score (FRS), Barcelona bio-HF (BCN Bio-HF) and Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) score. We included 280 elderly CHF patients from the Cardiac Insufficiency Bisoprolol Study in Elderly trial. Cox Regression and hierarchical cluster analysis was performed. Integrated area under the curves (IAUC) was used as criterium for comparison. The mean (SD) follow-up period was 81 (33) months, and 95 (34%) subjects met the primary endpoint. The IAUC for FRS was 0.53, SHFM 0.61, BCN Bio-HF 0.72, MAGGIC 0.68, and CLP 0.78. Subjects were partitioned into three risk clusters: low, moderate, high with the CLP score showing the best ability to group patients into their respective risk cluster. A risk score composed of a novel panel of metabolite biomarkers plus NT-proBNP outperformed other common prognostic scores in predicting 10-year cardiovascular death in elderly ambulatory CHF patients. This approach could improve the clinical risk assessment of CHF patients.