Quantitative research of the impact of Shunyi fault activity on the ground fissures in the Beijing Capital International Airport, China

The Shunyi fault in the Beijing Plain region is a significant late Pleistocene active fault. The Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) is situated within the central segment of the Shunyi Fault. Since 2010, ground fissures on the airport's runway have progressively worsened, with a maximum vertical displacement difference of up to 20 cm, severely affecting airport safety. Presently, the impact of Shunyi fault activity on the ground fissures at the BCIA is primarily described qualitatively. This paper, based on research regarding the geometric structure of the Shunyi Fault, Quaternary activity, and investigations of the ground fissures at the Capital Airport, employs the fault dislocation model to quantitatively analyze the influence of the Shunyi Fault's creep-sliding activity as well as the 1996 Shunyi ML 4.5 earthquake on the formation of airport ground fissures. The study also discusses the increasing risk of ground fissure hazards in the event of a potential strong earthquake along the Shunyi fault in the future. The preliminary results suggest that with a vertical activity rate of 0.6 mm/year, 46 years of Shunyi Fault's creep-sliding activity results in differential subsidence of no more than 2.5 cm on both sides of the airport ground fissures, contributing to approximately 20% of the formation and development of these fissures. The impact of the Shunyi ML 4.5 earthquake on the formation of airport ground fissures is minimal. However, if a future M 7.0 earthquake occurs on the Shunyi fault, the estimated maximum land differential subsidence between two sides of the fault could reach 104 cm, increasing the risk of airport ground fissure disasters by a factor of five. Ground differential settlement due to groundwater extraction from the upper and deeper layers of the Shunyi fault's hanging wall contributes about 70% to the formation and development of airport ground fissures, remaining the primary factor. The study's results provide essential scientific references for precise prevention and control of ground fissure disasters at BCIA. Furthermore, to further reveal the causes and mechanisms of delayed geological disasters along the Shunyi fault, such as ground fissures and land differential subsidence, it is recommended to implement dynamic monitoring of cross-fault crustal displacement or deformation at crucial segments.