Association of trajectory of body shape index with all-cause and cause-specific mortality: 18 years follow-up

ObjectivesThe current study aimed to examine how the trajectory of a body shape index (ABSI) could predict mortality in a prospective cohort of 5587 participants.MethodsA Growth Mixture Model (GMM) was employed to identify ABSI and body shape trajectories spanning from 2000 to 2018. Multivariate Cox regression models with hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were built to assess the association of death from all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) with ABSI and body shape trajectories.ResultsWe found that individuals with a low ABSI–marked increase (Class II) and high ABSI–marked increase trajectory (Class III) had a higher risk of all-cause (adjusted HR for Class II, 1.37; 95%CI, 1.04-1.79; adjusted HR for Class III, 1.42; 95%CI, 1.05-1.91) and non- CVD mortality (adjusted HR for Class II, 1.38; 95%CI, 1.00-1.91; adjusted HR for Class III, 1.42; 95%CI, 1.00-2.05) as well as an increased risk of CVD (adjusted HR for Class II, 1.40; 95%CI, 1.14-1.71; adjusted HR for Class III, 1.42; 95%CI, 1.13-1.78) and coronary heart disease (CHD) (adjusted HR for Class II, 1.52; 95%CI, 1.18-1.96; adjusted HR for Class III, 1.47; 95%CI, 1.11-1.95. The trajectories of body shape phenotypes did not show any significant associations with mortality, CVD, or CHD events.ConclusionsABSI trajectories might be associated with subsequent risk of mortality and CVD events.