Reduced human fecundity attributable to ambient fine particles in low- and middle-income countries

Background: Exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has been associated with reduced human fecundity. However, the attributable burden has not been estimated for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where the exposure–response function between PM2.5 and the infertility rate has been insufficiently studied. Objective: This study examined the associations between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and human fecundity indicators, namely the expected time to pregnancy (TTP) and 12-month infertility rate (IR), and then estimated PM2.5-attributable burden of infertility in LMICs. Methods: We analyzed 164,593 eligible women from 100 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 49 LMICs between 1999 and 2021. We assessed PM2.5 exposures during the 12 months before a pregnancy attempt using the global satellite-derived PM2.5 estimates produced by Atmospheric Composition Analysis Group (ACAG). First, we created a series of pseudo-populations with balanced covariates, given different levels of PM2.5 exposure, using a matching approach based on the generalized propensity score. For each pseudo-population, we used 2-stage generalized Gamma models to derive TTP or IR from the probability distribution of the questionnaire-based duration time for the pregnancy attempt before the interview. Second, we used spline regressions to generate nonlinear PM2.5 exposure–response functions for each of the two fecundity indicators. Finally, we applied the exposure–response functions to estimate number of infertile couples attributable to PM2.5 exposure in 118 LMICs. Results: Based on the Gamma models, each 10 µg/m3 increment in PM2.5 exposure was associated with a TTP increase by 1.7 % (95 % confidence interval [CI]: -2.3 %–6.0 %) and an IR increase by 2.3 % (95 %CI: 0.6 %–3.9 %). The nonlinear exposure–response function suggested a robust effect of an increased IR for high-concentration PM2.5 exposure (>75 µg/m3). Based on the PM2.5-IR function, across the 118 LMICs, the number of infertile couples attributable to PM2.5 exposure exceeding 35 µg/m3 (the first-stage interim target recommended by the World Health Organization global air quality guidelines) was 0.66 million (95 %CI: 0.061–1.43), accounting for 2.25 % (95 %CI: 0.20 %–4.84 %) of all couples affected by infertility. Among the 0.66 million, 66.5 % were within the top 10 % high-exposure infertile couples, mainly from South Asia, East Asia, and West Africa. Conclusion: PM2.5 contributes significantly to human infertility in places with high levels of air pollution. PM2.5-pollution control is imperative to protect human fecundity in LMICs.