Long-term risk of autoimmune diseases after mRNA-based SARS-CoV2 vaccination in a Korean, nationwide, population-based cohort study

Abstract The long-term association between mRNA-based coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination and the development of autoimmune connective tissue diseases (AI-CTDs) remains unclear. In this nationwide, population-based cohort study involving 9,258,803 individuals, we aim to determine whether the incidence of AI-CTDs is associated with mRNA vaccination. The study spans over 1 year of observation and further analyses the risk of AI-CTDs by stratifying demographics and vaccination profiles and treating booster vaccination as time-varying covariate. We report that the risk of developing most AI-CTDs did not increase following mRNA vaccination, except for systemic lupus erythematosus with a 1.16-fold risk in vaccinated individuals relative to controls. Comparable results were reported in the stratified analyses for age, sex, mRNA vaccine type, and prior history of non-mRNA vaccination. However, a booster vaccination was associated with an increased risk of some AI-CTDs including alopecia areata, psoriasis, and rheumatoid arthritis. Overall, we conclude that mRNA-based vaccinations are not associated with an increased risk of most AI-CTDs, although further research is needed regarding its potential association with certain conditions.