Energy-Related CO2 Emission in China’s Provincial Thermal Electricity Generation: Driving Factors and Possibilities for Abatement

China’s electricity sector mainly relies on coal-fired thermal generation, thus resulting that nearly 50% of China’s total CO2 emissions coming from the electricity sector. This study focuses on the provincial CO2 emissions from China’s thermal electricity generation. Methodologically, Index Decomposition Analysis (IDA), facilitated by the Shapley Index, is applied to discover the driving factors behind CO2 emission changes at the provincial level. In addition, the Slack-based Model (SBM) is used to identify which provincial power grids should be allocated with a higher (lower) CO2 reduction burden. The IDA results indicate that economic activity pushed the CO2 emissions up in all 30 provincial power grids, excluding Beijing and Shanghai; the carbon factor contributed to a decrease in the CO2 emissions in all 30 provincial power grids, with the exception of Jilin, Guangdong, and Ningxia; though the effect of energy intensity varied across the 30 provinces, it played a significant role in the mitigation of CO2 emissions in Beijing, Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Jilin, Shanghai, Anhui, and Sichuan. According to the SBM results, the lowest carbon shadow prices are observed in Yunnan, Shanghai, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Qinghai, Guizhou, Anhui, and Ningxia. These provincial power grids, thus, should face higher mitigation targets for CO2 emissions from thermal electricity generation.