Exploring the effect of the menstrual cycle or oral contraception on elite athletes’ training responses when workload is not objectively quantifiable: the MILS approach and findings from female Olympians

Objectives Develop the Markov Index Load State (MILS) model, based on hidden Markov chains, to assess athletes’ workload responses and investigate the effects of menstrual cycle (MC)/oral contraception (OC), sex steroids hormones and wellness on elite athletes’ training.Methods On a 7-month longitudinal follow-up, daily training (volume and perceived effort, n=2200) and wellness (reported sleep quality and quantity, fitness, mood, menstrual symptoms, n=2509) data were collected from 24 female rowers and skiers preparing for the Olympics. 51 MC and 54 OC full cycles relying on 214 salivary hormone samples were analysed. MC/OC cycles were normalised, converted in % from 0% (first bleeding/pill withdrawal day) to 100% (end).Results MILS identified three chronic workload response states: ‘easy’, ‘moderate’ and ‘hard’. A cyclic training response linked to MC or OC (95% CI) was observed, primarily related to progesterone level (p=8.23e-03 and 5.72e-03 for the easy and hard state, respectively). MC athletes predominantly exhibited the ‘easy’ state during the cycle’s first half (8%–53%), transitioning to the ‘hard’ state post-estimated ovulation (63%–96%). OC users had an increased ‘hard’ state (4%–32%) during pill withdrawal, transitioning to ‘easy’ (50%–60%) when on the pill. Wellness metrics influenced the training load response: better sleep quality (p=5.20e-04), mood (p=8.94e-06) and fitness (p=6.29e-03) increased the likelihood of the ‘easy’ state. Menstrual symptoms increased the ‘hard’ state probability (p=5.92e-02).Conclusion The MILS model, leveraging hidden Markov chains, effectively analyses cumulative training load responses. The model identified cyclic training responses linked to MC/OC in elite female athletes.