Spawning stock recruitment creates misleading dynamics under predation release in ecosystem and multi-species models

Ecosystem and multi-species models are used to understand ecosystem-wide effects of fishing, such as population expansion due to predation release, and further cascading effects. Many are based on fisheries models that focus on a single, depleted population, and may not always behave as expected in a multi-species context. The spawning stock recruitment (SSR) relationship, a curve linking the number of juvenile fish to the existing adult biomass, can produce dynamics that are counter-intuitive and change scenario outcomes. We analysed the Beverton–Holt SSR curve and found a population with low resilience when depleted becomes very productive under persistent predation release. To avoid implausible increases in biomass, we propose limiting recruitment to its unfished level. This allows for specification of resilience when a population is depleted, without sudden and excessive increase when the population expands. We demonstrate this dynamic and solution within an end-to-end ecosystem model, focusing on myctophids under fishing-induced predation release. We present one possible solution, but the specification of stock-recruitment models should continue to be a topic of discussion amongst multi-species and ecosystem modellers and empiricists going forward.