Populations of a tropical epiphytic orchid are destabilized in its peripheral range by hurricane and an exotic herbivore

Abstract In a time of global change, having an understanding of the nature of biotic and abiotic factors that drive a species' range may be the sharpest tool in the toolbox of conservation and management of threatened species. However, such information are lacking for most tropical and epiphytic species due to the complexity of life history, the roles of stochastic events, and the diversity of habitat across the span of a distribution. In this study, we conducted repeated census across the core and peripheral range of Trichocentrum undulatum, a threatened orchid that is found throughout the island of Cuba (species core range) and southern Florida (the northern peripheral range). We used demographic matrix modeling and stochastic simulations to investigate the impacts of herbivory, hurricanes, and logging (in Cuba) on projected population growth rates (λ and λs) among sites. Our study indicates that the Florida population is under high extinction risk and most populations in the core range show less interannual variability, but, with the exception of one population, are also in decline. The peripheral population experienced higher herbivory damage than did the core populations, by a native inflorescence‐crippling fly, Melanagromyza miamensis, and an invasive, mortality‐triggered scale, Diaspis boisduvalii. The latter was found in the Florida population only. Hurricanes increased levels of mortality and had a negative effect on λ. However, λ increased following hurricane events due to increased recruitment and decreased herbivory. Life table response experiments suggest that higher adult survival was the largest contributor to the higher λ observed in the growing Cuba populations, as compared with the population in Florida. Logging simulations in Cuba indicate that populations can maintain stability only if selective logging of host trees occurs at low frequency. Reintroduction of the species in its northern peripheral habitat is needed to ameliorate the threats from sea‐level rise and invasive herbivorous insects to secure the current species' northern, continental range margin. Our study exhibits how vital rates and ecological interactions vary across a species distribution and respond under differing stochastic events.