Assessing the Water–Energy–Food Nexus and Resource Sustainability in the Ardabil Plain: A System Dynamics and HWA Approach

Ardabil Plain, which holds significant political and economic importance in agricultural production in Iran, has faced various challenges including climate change, economic sanctions, and limited access to global trade. Ensuring food security has become a key priority for the region. The main objective of this research is to identify a suitable crop for this critical region with regard to future climate change conditions. This study employs a new framework of the system dynamics model (SDM) and the Hybrid Weighted Averaging (HWA) method to assess the Water–Energy–Food (WEF) nexus and resource sustainability in the Ardabil Plain under different climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5). The research addresses current and future water challenges, emphasizing the need for additional energy and selecting optimal crops. Using the SDM, the study analyzes the impact of water supply fluctuations on agriculture, economic gain, and energy consumption from 2021 to 2050. The results indicate that barley is the most suitable crop for the Ardabil Plain in the near future, based on the overall ranking derived from the HWA method, which is as follows: barley > wheat > soybeans > potatoes > pears. The study highlights the significant challenges in energy supply for agriculture due to declining water levels and the increased force required by pumps to supply water to farms. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders to make informed decisions in addressing water scarcity and rising energy demands in the Ardabil Plain.