Estimation of Operation Cost of Residential Multiple Energy System Considering Uncertainty of Loads and Renewable Energies

This paper introduces a new method of estimating the variation interval and the expected value of optimal economic operation cost for the energy hub (EH) model considering load and renewable energy uncertainties in the residential district. Firstly, renewable energy and load uncertainties are defined as uncertain sets of historical data. Due to dispatch factors, the traditional EH model is non-linear and difficult to calculate and analyze. In this paper, a multi-step modeling method is developed for the breakdown of a complex EH model (CEH) into several simple EH (SEH) models and variable substitutions in each SEH, to eliminate the non-linearity of CEH. The upper and lower bound of the operating costs are then obtained based on the duality theorem and the expected value is calculated by expected value model. Finally, the case study in Beijing residential district is carried out to confirm the efficiency of the proposed method.