Sustainably developing global blue carbon for climate change mitigation and economic benefits through international cooperation

Abstract Blue carbon is the carbon storage in vegetated coastal ecosystems such as mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrass. It is gaining global attention as its role in climate change mitigation and local welfare growth. However, a global assessment on the long-term spatiotemporal sustainable development status of blue carbon has not been conducted, and the relations among blue carbon ecosystems, driving forces for climate change mitigation, and socioeconomic interventions for development capacity on a global scale are still unclear. Here, we constructed a blue carbon development index (BCDI), comprising three subsystems: driving force, resource endowment, and development capacity, to assess the sustainable development level of 136 coastal countries’ blue carbon over 24 consecutive years and explore the relationship among subsystems. We further propose a cooperation model to explore the feasibility of global blue carbon cooperation and quantify benefit allocation to specific countries. The results showed an upward trend in BCDI scores with variations in regional performance over the past two decades, and we found a positive correlation between development capacity and blue carbon resource endowment. Based on the scenario simulations of global cooperation, we found that coastal countries could improve the global average BCDI score, add 2.96 Mt of annual carbon sequestration, and generate $136.34 million in 2030 under Global Deep Cooperation scenario compared with the Business-As-Usual scenario.