Uncovering Success Patterns in Track Cycling: Integrating Performance Data with Coaches and Athletes’ Perspectives

Track cycling entails a challenging progression from the youth categories to elite competition. Hence, this study aimed to investigate the importance of early performance and various publicly available performance indicators in predicting the success of male and female cyclists across different track disciplines. Additionally, the study enriches the findings by incorporating interviews with international-level coaches and athletes. A retrospective analysis of data from UCI track cycling databases was conducted, supplemented by interviews with international-level coaches and athletes. The success rate for highly ranked junior track cyclists was found to be less than 20%, with a majority of these athletes specializing in sprint events, regardless of gender. The study indicated that the UCI ranking and points earned during the season were not reliable indicators for distinguishing future success (p < 0.05). From the interviews, we identified three main themes: (1) trends in career success from the youth to elite categories, (2) performance markers as predictors of future success, and (3) the challenges and time involved in reaching elite categories. Junior category performance alone may not be the sole indicator of future success in track cycling. However, integrating performance analyses with practitioners and athletes’ perspectives enables a deeper understanding of the results and the developmental context.