Influencing Factor Identification and Simulation for Urban Metro System Operation Processes—A Resilience Enhancement Perspective

When confronted with rainstorms and flood disturbances, the operational processes of urban metro systems demonstrate vulnerabilities to attacks, inadequate resistance, and sluggish recovery characteristics. The flood resilience of UMS operational processes requires urgent enhancements. This paper aims to enhance the flood resilience of urban metro operation processes by proposing a three-stage PEL resilience enhancement framework: prevention resilience, response resilience, and learning resilience. Additionally, it summarizes the influencing factors on UMS flood resilience from five dimensions: natural-physical-social-management-economic (NPSME). By employing system dynamics as a simulation tool, this study elucidates the logical interconnections among these influential factors. Furthermore, by utilizing economic change conditions as an illustrative example, it effectively simulates the response characteristics of both standardized benchmark scenarios and economic change scenarios. Based on these simulation results, corresponding strategies for flood resilience enhancement are proposed to offer valuable insights for metro operation management. The Nanjing metro system was taken as a case study, where relevant historical data were collected and strategies were simulated for different development scenarios to validate the effectiveness and rationality of the proposed method for enhancing resilience. The simulation results demonstrate that changes in economic conditions and population structure are the primary factors influencing the enhancement of flood resilience in UMS operations.