Characterizing large-scale weak interlayer shear zones using conditional random field theory

The shear behavior of large-scale weak intercalation shear zones (WISZs) often governs the stability of foundations, rock slopes, and underground structures. However, due to their wide distribution, undulating morphology, complex fabrics, and varying degrees of contact states, characterizing the shear behavior of natural and complex large-scale WISZs precisely is challenging. This study proposes an analytical method to address this issue, based on geological fieldwork and relevant experimental results. The analytical method utilizes the random field theory and Kriging interpolation technique to simplify the spatial uncertainties of the structural and fabric features for WISZs into the spatial correlation and variability of their mechanical parameters. The Kriging conditional random field of the friction angle of WISZs is embedded in the discrete element software 3DEC, enabling activation analysis of WISZ C2 in the underground caverns of the Baihetan hydropower station. The results indicate that the activation scope of WISZ C2 induced by the excavation of underground caverns is approximately 0.5–1 times the main powerhouse span, showing local activation. Furthermore, the overall safety factor of WISZ C2 follows a normal distribution with an average value of 3.697.