Spatio-temporal analysis of socio-economic characteristics for pulmonary tuberculosis in Sichuan province of China, 2006–2015

Abstract Background The disease burden caused by pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in Sichuan province still persisted at a high level, and large spatial variances were presented across regional distribution disparities. The socio-economic factors were suspected to affect the population of TB notification, we aimed to describe TB case notification rate (CNR) and identify which factors influence TB epidemic are necessary for the prevention and control of the disease in Sichuan province. Methods A retrospective cross-sectional study and an ecological spatial analysis was conducted to quantify the presence and location of spatial clusters of TB by the Moran’s I index and examined these patterns with socio-economic risk factors by hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model. Results A total of 630,009 pulmonary TB cases were notified from 2006 to 2015 in 181 counties of Sichuan province. The CNR decreased year by year since 2007, from 88.70 to 61.37 per 100,000 persons. The spatial heterogeneities of CNR were observed during the study periods. Global Moran’s I index varied from 0.23 to 0.44 with all P-value