Influences of Potential Military Conflict between Taiwan and China on the Intention to Emigrate among Taiwanese Individuals

Objectives: Amid escalating tensions between Taiwan and China, the potential for military conflict profoundly affects the intention to emigrate among Taiwanese citizens. This study examined the influence of the perception of potential military conflict between Taiwan and China, depressive symptoms, and sociodemographic characteristics on emigration intention among Taiwanese citizens. Methods: Through stratified random sampling and telephone interviews conducted, data on emigration intentions, awareness of China’s military activities, concern of potential military conflict, the perceived effects of military conflict on the lifestyle, and depressive symptoms of 2,000 Taiwanese individuals were collected. Logistic regression models were used to analyze the associations between emigration intention and various predictors, namely, attitudes toward military conflict, depressive symptoms, and sociodemographic characteristics. Results: The findings revealed that 23.4% of participants harbored the intention to emigrate. Significant determinants of this intention were high education level (p < 0.001), concern about the possibility of military conflict (p < 0.001), concern about the effects of military conflict (p < 0.001), a marked lack of confidence in the ability of political leadership to manage cross-strait relations (p < 0.001), and significant depressive symptoms (p < 0.001). Conversely, older age (p < 0.001), lack of awareness about China’s military activities (p < 0.001), and chronic physical ailments (p < 0.05) were inversely related to emigration intention. Age and education level moderated the relationship between military conflict-related concern and emigration intention (p < 0.05). Conclusion: The interplay of age, educational level, concern about military conflict between Taiwan and China, significant depressive symptoms, and confidence in political leadership significantly influences emigration intention among Taiwanese individuals, highlighting the need for targeted policy responses.