A Study on the Spatial and Temporal Variation of Summer Surface Temperature in the Bosten Lake Basin and Its Influencing Factors

The land surface temperature (LST) is an important indicator reflecting the ecological environment condition. As a sensitive area to climate change, mastering the spatial and temporal changes of summer LST in the Bosten Lake basin (BLB) helps gain insight into the evolution of the thermal environment in the Bosten Lake basin and for long-term monitoring of the basic ecological changes in the basin. Based on MOD11A1 data from 2005 to 2020, this paper investigates the diurnal LST spatiotemporal series variation and its influencing factors in the Bosten Lake basin by using surface temperature class classification, trending analysis, the Hurst index, and geographic probes. The results show that (1) the wetland grasslands in and around the Bayinbruck steppe in the northwestern part of the study area exhibit a heat island effect during the day, while the opposite is true at night. In terms of temporal changes, LST changes in the BLB fluctuate widely, having a general rising and then decreasing trend. (2) The decreasing trend of LST from 2005 to 2020 is significant during the daytime and vice versa at night, and the change at night is greater than during the day. The areas with significantly higher diurnal LST in the future have all expanded compared to the area occupied by them now, with an overall trend of a steady increase. (3) The dominant factor of LST variation has the strongest explanatory power when altitude and NDVI are combined during the daytime and the strongest explanatory power when NPP and temperature are combined at night.