Decline or shifting distribution? A first regional trend assessment for white sharks (Carcharodon carcharias) in South Africa

Unprecedented levels of change in ocean ecosystems bring an ever-increasing need for re-analyses of existing data to explore pressing conservation questions. Substantial declines in white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) presence at two primary aggregation sites have raised concerns about the species’ status throughout South Africa. Using the most comprehensive suite of abundance indices compiled to date, we evaluated temporal trends and the strength of evidence for regional redistribution. Individual indices from all primary aggregation sites in South Africa were highly variable. The overall temporal trend from a log-linear Generalized Additive Model was relatively flat, indicating largely unchanged abundance throughout South Africa since protection in 1991. However, reports of human-shark incidents showed a general shift from the Western to the Eastern Cape. Correlations among individual abundance indices demonstrated that movements were not as simple as animals leaving one site to inhabit another. Further research is needed to explore the effect of movement on monitoring data. Our results reaffirm the need for better standardization in data collection methods to generate abundance indices and to develop long-term monitoring programs on the Eastern Cape. Ideally, environmental or operational factors affecting abundance indices should also be explored in future status assessments at a regional level. Our results provide a baseline for future work, directing research to understand drivers of localized and regional changes and focusing management on reducing anthropogenic sources of mortality within their Southwest Indian Ocean range.