Spatial differentiation and endogenous driving mechanisms of China’s energy transition

[Objective] To facilitate the achievement of China’s dual carbon goals and advance energy transitions tailored to local conditions across provinces, it is crucial to clarify the spatial differentiation patterns of energy transitions at the provincial level in China and identify the endogenous driving factors and their varying effects. [Methods] This study investigated 30 Chinese provinces, employing the proportion of clean energy in regional energy consumption as a metric. A multi-level analytical framework rooted in the sociotechnical systems perspective was constructed. The centroid model, ordinary least squares (OLS) method, and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) method were used to analyze the status and driving factors of China’s energy transition from 2000 to 2020. [Results] (1) Although the provinces exhibited differentiated progress in energy transitions, the regional disparities were gradually narrowing over time. (2) In terms of driving factors of regional energy transition,s resource endowments have been the core and dominant factor, particularly the underpinning role of hydropower resources and the locking-in and assurance role of fossil fuel endowments. However, regional carbon emission reduction pressures and innovation investments have become important driving forces for regional energy transition in the new period. (3) The driving factors and their effects on energy transitions in these provinces were characterized by significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Prior to 2012, clean energy production capacity and electricity imports from outside the region dominated almost all provinces. Post-2012, the influence of electricity imports weakened, while technological advancements gained greater influence. Spatially, resource endowments had a more significant impact on northern China, while economic development levels exerted a stronger influence on energy transitions in northwestern China. [Conclusion] As China’s energy transition accelerates, regional disparities are diminishing. This study recommends the construction of an integrated clean energy supply system of wind, light, water, and nuclear energy storage and transmission, supported by coal power; increasing technological investments to promote the efficient use of clean energy; and improving cross-regional energy allocation, thereby driving the transformation of energy structures and sustainable development.