Innovative development of the region's economy: methods of analysis within the recurrent approach

Based on the application of the recurrent approach to studying cyclic processes, the article proves that modern innovative development can be considered in two ways – both as a "tool" to achieve a certain level of social development (neo-industrial, in this case,) and as a product of a particular level of development of society in general and economy in particular within the country as a whole as well as at the level of its regions. Furthermore, it is proved that the modern innovation cycle, which began in the last quarter of the 20th century, can be completed in the first third of the 21st century. Such time limits make it possible not only to distinguish indicators of the innovation cycle in regional economic systems but also to present their phase-by-phase dynamics in order to specify the phase in which the cycle is. The statistical base of the Perm region was taken as an example to perform a comprehensive analysis within three groups of indicators: the first group contains indicators that directly characterize innovative development of the economic system; the second group ("providing") includes indicators that allow one to assess the quality of creation and progressive development of the innovation component of the regional economic development; the third group consists of resulting indicators which reflect to what degree innovative transformations in the economy are completed. A conclusion is drawn that the modern innovation cycle is characterized by intertwining of progressive and regressive trends, which is seen both in the dynamics of innovative development of the economy of the Perm region as a whole and in each group of indicators. The general and differentiated conclusions have become the basis for the author's techniques for development of directions and methods of the state regulation of innovative development in the region's economy on the basis of the recurrent approach.