Probability modelling of landslide hazard

In this journal, the authors (Zorn, Komac 2004) previously described the use of two deterministic methods for establishing the possibility of landsliding. This time, they take a step forward and using the example of the flysch Goriška Brda hills present the probability modelling of landslide hazard. In probability methods, the intensity and distribution of the processes are established by comparing indirectly determined landscape elements and the actual situation, while in deterministic methods, subjective decisions have an impact on the result. We have elaborated a probability map for landslides with a fixed return period using the Dempster-Shafer method on the basis of the data on 800 landslides that occurred with intensive precipitation in the fall of 1998.